Modeling the Impact of increased CO2 levels on Wheat and Rabi Maize for Different Climate Change Scenarios in selected locations of Bihar
A. Abdul Haris 1 , M. A. Khan2 , R. Elanchezhian 3 , S. Biswas4 , V. Chhabra4
ICAR Research Complex for Eastern Region, ICAR Parisar, P.O. B. V.
College , Patna-800014.
ABSTRACT Agriculture remains dependent on climate and climatic resources, uneven distribution of monsoonal rainfall, due to climate change, around the country may result in some parts getting flooded while others facing drought, leading to mass migration of people and insecurity of availability of food to all. Timely assessment of climate change effects on agriculture might help to adapt suitable farming techniques to maximize agricultural production. The response of C 3 and C 4 crops to elevated CO 2 levels when exposed frequently to water stress or changes in climatic factors such as temperature or rainfall may provide variable results. Current crop growth models, simulate not only the effect of increased temperature but, also consider the effect of increased CO 2 on morphology and phenology of crop. Simulated yield of wheat (HUW 468) decreases from the baseline in 2050 and 2080 while, a meager increase of 3% may o ccur in 2020 at Pusa. At Madhepura, a decline of 21% in simulated yield of wheat (HD 2733) from the baseline may be observed for 2080. Patna and Sabour may show a decrease in simulated yield of almost 40 % upto 2080s. Simulated yield of rabi maize may increase to 11 %, 25% and 77 % upto 2020, 2050 and 2080 respectively for the stations under study. Reduction in simulated yield of wheat without CO 2 increase is higher than simulation with CO 2 increase for all stations and scenarios. For 2020s difference in reduction percentage between simulated yield with and without CO 2 increment is less as compared to 2050s and 2080s. While, in case of maize an increase in yield is observed with or without CO 2 increase but the increase is more at enhanced CO 2 . Introduction Climate change refers to th e variation in earth’s global climate or in regional climates over timescales ranging from decades to millions of years. Greenhouse gases (GHG’s), are effective in tr apping heat at the earth’s surface, without GHG’s, most of the currently cultivated regions of the earth would be too cold for agricultural production. However, human activity is contributing to increases in GHG concentrations in the atmosphere and the increases are causing potentially